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Perspective |
1 Department of Radiology, Mayo Clinic, 200 First St. S.W., Rochester, MN 55905.
Received February 18, 2002;
accepted after revision March 14, 2002.
Supported by the National Cancer Institute (NCI R01 CA 79935-03) and the
Mayo Clinic.
Introduction
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I will briefly review results from my institution from more than 4500 patient-years of scanning in a hypothesis-driven scientific setting at our institution. I will look at reasons for optimism and reasons for doubt that CT screening for lung cancer will ultimately save lives (i.e., reduce disease-specific mortality). I will also touch briefly on the ancillary findings among our participants and explore the concept of comprehensive, full-body CT screening.
In the early 1900s, lung cancer was a rare occurrence. It was not until the 1930s and 1940s that it showed up on the radar screen, so to speak, and today it is unfortunately the most common cause of cancer deaths among both men and women. We cannot lose sight of the fact that smoking causes lung cancer, and the best cure for lung cancer is prevention.
In fact, smoking causes more deaths than AIDS, alcohol, drug abuse, car crashes, murders, suicides, and fires combined. It accounts for one of every five deaths in the United States430,700 deaths per year.
CT Screening: Mayo Clinic Experience
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In our first prevalence year, 51% of participants had one or more uncalcified radiologically indeterminate nodules. Forty percent of these nodules were smaller than 4 mm in diameter, and 50% measured from 4 to 7 mm. In the two subsequent incidence years, our participants had return rates of 98% and 96%. In the first incidence year, 14% of our participants had new lung nodules that were not present at admittance in retrospect. In the second incidence year, 9% had new nodules that were not present, in retrospect, in either of the two previous years.
At the end of 3 years of scanning, we are following up more than 2800 uncalcified, radiologically indeterminate lung nodules. Nearly 70% of our participants have one or more uncalcified lung nodules. We have identified 41 lung cancers, 59% of which are stage IA. The mean size of the cancers was 17 mm in diameter; four were smaller than 7 mm in diameter at the time of discovery. The smallest cancer at the time of discovery was 3 mm.
A total of 1.4% of all lung nodules in our study are now known to be malignant. We expect that nearly 99% of all the lung nodules we identified were benign and therefore were false-positive findings.
More than 90 million current and past smokers exist in the United States [2]. If you were to extrapolate our findings to just this high-risk population, you would expect to find more than 150 million uncalcified radiologically indeterminate nodules in the adult population. That is the "fly in the ointment" that concerns all of us involved with screening. One important feature of a useful screening test is a low false-positive rate. CT apparently will not meet this criterion.
Unfortunately, it is difficult to distinguish benign from malignant nodules. The most appropriate means of treating most small lung nodules is with radiologic follow-up. Three-dimensional analysis with segmentation may be the most accurate, sensitive, and reproducible tool for follow-up of small nodules [3]. For nodules that are at least approximately 7-8 mm, a positron emission tomography or CT nodule enhancement study may be helpful in the treatment.
To date, eight of our participants have had surgery for removal of a benign nodule, approximately 20% of the operations that were performed. The most recent data from multi-center studies in both the United States and Europe show that approximately 50% of lung nodules removed at surgery are benign [4]. That rate of resection of benign nodules would be clearly unacceptable for a mass screening endeavor, given the number of false-positive findings. Even if the cost were the only consideration, $20,000-25,000 per operation would be unacceptable. A much greater concern, however, is the morbidity and the 3.8% mortality seen with wedge resections of lung nodules in community hospitals in the United States [5]. As we seriously study this test, we should not do more harm than good to patients.
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Our protocol included a low-dose helical CT scan of the chest and upper abdomen through the level of the kidneys. Nearly 700 of our 1520 participants had a significant ancillary finding. The findings included four renal cancers, three breast cancers, one atrial myxoma, two gastric tumors, and 114 abdominal aortic aneurysms. However, we also found 147 indeterminate renal, adrenal, or breast masses that needed further evaluation. When one combines the findings of benign lung nodules with nonpulmonary ancillary findings after only 3 years of scanning, nearly 80% of our participants have had one or more positive findings that will need further diagnostic testing.
These ancillary findings, coupled with the 41 lung cancers that we found, certainly raise the possibility that total-body screening is not only lifesaving but also cost-effective. However, scientifically such a conclusion is absolutely unproven at this point, and the matter needs to be throughly studied in a responsible manner.
Serious ethical questions have been raised about advertising directly to the general public in the United States. A primary concern is that of informed consent [6]. If the claim is that lung cancer can be found early, the inference may well be that "we can save your life." A person reading such an advertisement could reasonably presume that the necessary scientific studies have been performed, and that the recommendation in the advertisement is from evidence-based medicine. This presumption is particularly true if physicians are involved in the promotion. Our profession must be seriously concerned about such a practice.
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Another reason for optimism is the success that medicine has had with improving the survival of patients with colorectal, breast, and prostate cancers, all of which have had statistically significant improvements in survival rates since the 1970s [13]. However, no progress has been made with lung cancer, and no test has been shown to be effective for reducing mortality. Could CT screening be the test that will be effective for reducing mortality? More Americans die of lung cancer than colorectal, breast, and prostate cancers combined.
Why should screening for lung cancer fail? The experience with lung cancer is that it is most often fatal, with a 5-year survival rate of only 13-14%. In fact, when one looks at the outcome of patients who decline treatment for stage I cancer, the disease is almost universally fatal [14]. The proponents of screening strongly assert that tens of thousands of lives per year could be saved with mass screening in the United States alone. They contend that the identification of ancillary findings will save additional lives and that screening will be clearly cost-effective [15].
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When does lung cancer metastasize? Is it when it is undergoing angiogenesis? Angiogenesis occurs at 1-2 mm for most tumors [17,18,19,20].
When does lung cancer become a systemic disease? Human tumor grown in nude mouse models sheds between 3 and 6 million cells per gram of tissue every 24 hr [21]. Even though most of these cells are not viable, all it takes is one viable metastatic cell to lead to the death of a patient.
CT for lung cancer is directed at nonsmall cell lung cancer. It is not anticipated that earlier detection of small cell lung cancer will result in a significant reduction in mortality. This observation will mitigate any positive effect that CT has on overall lung cancer mortality rates.
Although intuitively it may make sense to some that earlier detection will result in decreased mortality, this assumption has not been proven. In fact, questions have been raised regarding whether there is any correlation at all. Patz et al. [22] reviewed a series of 510 patients and found no relationship between tumors smaller than or equal to 3 cm in diameter and survival (i.e., patients who had a 3-cm mass had the same survival rate as those with a 1-cm nodule). In a related study [23], no relationship was seen between stage at presentation and size of tumor (i.e., 1-cm and 2- to 3-cm lung cancers had similar distributions of stage). Is the propensity to metastasize predetermined by genetics? Does metastasis for most lung cancers occur at a size smaller than can be routinely detected by CT (Fig. 1A,1B)?
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Some say that lung cancer is deadly and that there is no hope of significantly decreasing mortality by earlier detection. They contend that the outcome will be the same as that of the chest radiography studies from the 1970s. The tens of billions of dollars spent per year in screening would mean fewer funds for more successful alternatives. Furthermore, they say, Americans might get the message that it is safer to smoke now that lung cancer can seemingly be cured with screening. Certainly, they raise concerns about false-positive findings and overdiagnosis leading to increased cost of treatment and to increased morbidity and mortality rates. They say it would be a blow to patients' quality of life when they find out that they are among the nearly 70% of those screened who have a positive finding that could be cancer but will not know whether the nodule is indeed a cancer for months or years.
What is overdiagnosis, and is it, in fact, harmful? Fewer than 1% of Americans experience potentially lethal renal cell carcinoma. Approximately 0.5% die from this form of cancer. Yet when one looks closely at the kidneys in autopsies, more than 22% of these persons are found to have unsuspected histologic renal cell carcinoma [24]. Most of these cancers are not fatal. Renal cell carcinoma is the kind of disease that patients die with and not from. A serious concern has been raised that the better our methods of detection, the more overdiagnosis of renal cell cancers we will have [25, 26]. As more of these cancers are resected, more persons will die of surgical complications, with little or no decrease in mortality. Did we actually "save" the lives of the four participants in whom we identified renal cell carcinomas, or are we fooling ourselves?
Could the same thing be true for lung cancer? Adenocarcinoma appears to be
overrepresented in the CT screening of lung cancer cell types (60-80% with CT
vs
40% expected), and a large proportion appears to be well
differentiated, which is associated with longer survival. This finding
suggests the possibility of overdiagnosis bias in CT screening trials.
Autopsy data also raise concerns about overdiagnosis. One study showed that one sixth of lung cancers found at autopsy were not clinically recognized and were not related to the patient's death [27]. Are these "extra cancers" ones that cause patients' deaths? The closer we look at the lung and the kidney in "healthy" persons, the more "disease" we find. But is it pseudodisease [28,29,30,31]? Another type of overdiagnosis is pathologic overdiagnosis in which there is inter- and intraobserver variation in the diagnosis of disorders such as lung adenomas and atypical adenomatous hyperplasia. The misclassification of indolent premalignant or benign conditions like cancer will not decrease disease-specific mortality rates but will apparently increase survival rates.
A number of interesting studies from Japan showed that a large proportion of lung cancers occurred in persons who never smoked. In fact, one series showed the same rate of cancer, approximately 0.5%, in screened smokers and in those who never smoked [32]. This finding does not fit with clinical experience in which we see that most patients who die of lung cancer are heavy long-term smokers. Are these cancers overdiagnosed?
The volume doubling time of the cancers in one series of patients who never smoked was more than twice as long as that of cancers in smokers [33]. In that series, 31% of 61 cancers examined were well-differentiated adenocarcinomas. These cancers had a mean size of 10 mm, and only one of 19 was seen on chest radiography. One hundred percent of them were stage I. Their mean doubling time was 813 days. A volume doubling time of 813 days means that it would take 16 years for a 3-mm lung cancer to undergo seven volume doublings to reach 15 mm in diameter. Is that the kind of lung cancer that will kill? Surgical wedge resection of those cancers does killat a rate of 3.8% [5]. Morbidity (chronic pain, atrial fibrillation, infection, respiratory insufficiency) is an important quality-of-life issue that often is overlooked in the analysis of "effectiveness." First, do no harm.
If CT screening leads to overdiagnosis of lung cancer, one would expect an increase in stage I disease, an increase in resectability, an increase in 5-year survival, and an increase in the total number of cancers but no change in the number of advanced cancers and no decrease in lung cancer deaths [28,29,30]. This result is exactly what was found in the Mayo Lung Project from the 1970s, which has recently been reviewed by researchers at the National Cancer Institute [34]. The Mayo Lung Project involved 9211 men who were randomized to either screening by chest radiography or usual care. In this study, the investigators found nearly twice as many early-stage cancers in the screening group as in the control group. The cancers in the screened patients were more resectable, and those patients lived longer. However, no difference existed in the number of advanced-stage cancers between the control and the screened groups, and after more than two decades of follow-up, no difference in mortality rates was observed between the two groups [34,35,36]. The Czech lung cancer project, with a cohort of 6346 participants, had similar results and also showed no difference in mortality rates [37].
In conclusion, CT is much more sensitive than chest radiography for the detection of early lung cancer. Clearly, too, CT reveals more early-stage lung cancers than does chest radiography. What is not clear is whether CT meets the criteria of an effective screening test [31]. Will the number of advanced stage cancers detected with CT screening decrease? Serious issues are raised by false-positive findings with regard to quality of life, radiation exposure, and intervention. Surgery triggered by false-positive findings could lead to higher morbidity and mortality rates among the participants in the screened group than any gain in disease-specific mortality rates.
Ancillary findings from CT screening raise hopes for decreased mortality from many conditions, including abdominal aortic aneurysms and renal cell carcinoma, but issues of overdiagnosis and operative mortality mute the enthusiasm.
The bottom line is that we are unequivocally required as scientists and health professionals to thoroughly study this new "beast" before jumping into what might be a quagmire. A randomized, controlled trial is the best way to address the controversy and probably the only way that third-party payers will ever agree to pay for this screeningif a trial shows positive results.
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