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AJR 2003; 180:893-900
© American Roentgen Ray Society


Developing a Prediction Rule to Assess Hepatic Malignancy in Patients with Cirrhosis

Ruth C. Carlos1, H. Myra Kim2, Hero K. Hussain1, Issac R. Francis1, Hanh V. Nghiem1 and A. Mark Fendrick3

1 Department of Radiology, MRI Section, University of Michigan, 1500 E. Medical Center Dr., UH B2B311, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-0030.
2 Center for Statistical Consulting and Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-0030.
3 Department of Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-0030.

Received July 24, 2002; accepted after revision September 11, 2002.

 
Address correspondence to R. C. Carlos.

R. C. Carlos is supported in part by a GE–AUR Radiology Research Academic Fellowship.


Abstract
Top
Abstract
Introduction
Materials and Methods
Results
Discussion
References
 
OBJECTIVE. The objectives of our study were to identify independent clinical, demographic, and MR imaging correlates of malignancy in patients with cirrhosis and to develop a predictive model based on identified correlates of malignancy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS. Sixty examinations of 58 patients with biopsy proof of lesions suggestive of hepatocellular carcinoma on MR imaging were retrospectively reviewed. The signal intensity of the lesion on T2-weighted imaging and dynamic gadoliniumenhanced imaging, the size of the lesion, and the number of suspicious lesions were recorded; in addition, patient age and sex, {alpha}-fetoprotein level, and hepatitis C viral genotype were noted. The association between malignancy and each predictor variable was evaluated using the chi-square test or the two-group t test. The final logistic regression model included the variables that were shown to have a significant association with malignancy and the clinically relevant predictors. We used the adjusted odds ratios to measure the strength of each association. The discriminant ability of the model for detecting hepatic malignancy was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS. The prevalence of hepatic malignancy in our study population was 64%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the logistic regression model was 0.82. Venous washout (odds ratio = 9.2), {alpha}-fetoprotein level (odds ratio = 3.2), and number of lesions (odds ratio = 1.5) were significant predictors for malignancy (p < 0.05). When arterial enhancement and venous washout were either both present or both absent, {alpha}-fetoprotein level contributed little to the prediction of malignancy.

CONCLUSION. The MR characteristics of hepatic lesions during the dynamic venous phase in conjunction with the serum {alpha}-fetoprotein level and number of lesions are predictors of hepatic malignancy. The use of these predictors can facilitate explicit estimation of malignancy in individuals with underlying cirrhosis, potentially improving clinical decision-making.


Introduction
Top
Abstract
Introduction
Materials and Methods
Results
Discussion
References
 
The use of MR imaging to reveal hepatic disease has become widespread. In particular, MR imaging is advocated as the preferred method for evaluating the liver in individuals with cirrhosis, with reports citing improved lesion detection and characterization on MR imaging compared with CT [1, 2].

In patients with cirrhosis, one of the major roles of imaging is to reveal hepatocellular carcinoma and reliably enable the radiologist to differentiate malignant nodules from other masses. A standard MR examination, consisting of T1- and T2-weighted sequences and a dynamic gadolinium-enhanced sequence, is designed to detect and characterize hepatic lesions. MR criteria for lesion characterization include arterial enhancement and washout patterns [3, 4] and, to a lesser extent, signal characteristics on T2-weighted imaging [5, 6, 7, 8, 9]. Although the classic MR imaging features of hepatocellular carcinoma have been described, the imaging characteristics of benign tumors overlap with those of malignant tumors [3, 10, 11, 12, 13].

A prior study evaluating the ability of MR imaging to characterize hepatic lesions included cysts and hemangiomas [14]; however, the area of difficulty in MR imaging interpretation is differentiating between solid benign and solid malignant tumors. The value of obtaining a clinical history and of performing MR imaging has also been reported [15, 16], particularly for evaluating incidental liver lesions. The authors of these reports found that in the absence of a clinical history of cancer, none of the detected hepatic lesions were malignant. In both studies, whether the patients had a history of underlying liver disease was not recorded. For their study, Tello et al. [16] developed a prediction rule for assessing liver masses. These researchers used T2 relaxivity combined with clinical and demographic characteristics to detect malignancy in patients with or without a history of malignancy, but these researchers did not record whether patients had a history of liver disease. However, measuring T2 relaxivity is not part of MR imaging in routine clinical practice. To our knowledge, no previous study has quantitatively evaluated the contribution of MR imaging characteristics from a routine examination as predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis.

Unlike the objectives of previous studies, the purposes of this study were to identify predictors of hepatic malignancy and develop a predictive model for diagnosing hepatic malignancy in patients with known cirrhosis. We therefore included in this study only patients with known cirrhosis and results from a prior biopsy of suspicious hepatic nodules; consequently, the underlying prevalence of malignancy for our study population increased.


Materials and Methods
Top
Abstract
Introduction
Materials and Methods
Results
Discussion
References
 
Patient Selection
All hepatic MR imaging examinations of patients with known cirrhosis and no known underlying extrahepatic malignancy that were performed at our institution between October 1998 and May 2002 were retrospectively reviewed. Only patients who underwent core needle biopsies of lesions thought to be suggestive of hepatocellular carcinoma on MR imaging were included. The clinical, laboratory, and demographic data were collected from the medical records. Institutional review board approval for retrospective data analysis was obtained.

Fifty-eight patients (14 women and 44 men; mean age, 55.4 years; age range, 42–84 years) with known cirrhosis underwent 60 MR examinations. We included a total of 61 index lesions with pathologic diagnosis of a core needle biopsy sample. One patient had two index lesions. Two other patients had the same lesion biopsied twice at 6-month intervals, and these lesions were treated as independent lesions.

Biopsy Technique
The biopsies were performed under sonographic or CT guidance. Samples were obtained using a semiautomated 18- or 20-gauge needle. Specimens were fixed in formalin and sent to the pathology department for histologic analysis. The results of the original report were reviewed for diagnosis. All specimens were considered diagnostic.

MR Imaging Techniques
All MR studies were performed on a 1.5-T Signa scanner (General Electric Medical Systems, Milwaukee, WI) before biopsy. The following sequences were performed in all patients: an axial T1-weighted sequence using either a spin-echo technique (TR/TE, <500/12) or spoiled gradientrecalled echo in- and out-of-phase techniques (TR/TE range: out-of-phase, <180/1.8–2.4; in-phase, <180/4.2–4.8); an axial T2-weighted fast spin-echo sequence with respiratory triggering (TR/TE, <5000/90); and a dynamic contrast-enhanced two-dimensional or three-dimensional T1-weighted spoiled gradient-echo sequence. The parameters for the two-dimensional spoiled gradient-echo sequence with fat suppression were a TR of less than 200 msec, a TE of 1.2 msec, and a flip angle of 70°. The parameters for the three-dimensional spoiled gradient-echo sequence with spectral fat suppression were a TR of less than 6 msec, a TE of 1.2 msec, and a flip angle of 12°.

Dynamic MR imaging was performed before IV injection of 20 mL of gadolinium (Magnevist [gadopentetate dimeglumine], Berlex Laboratories, Wayne, NJ; or Omniscan [gadodiamide], Nycomed Amersham, Oslo, Norway) and subsequently during the arterial dominant, portal venous, and delayed phases. For the early studies, dynamic imaging was performed using a two-dimensional T1-weighted spoiled gradient-echo sequence, and the arterial phase images were acquired after a fixed delay of 15 sec from the start of contrast injection. The later dynamic studies were performed using a three-dimensional T1-weighted spoiled gradient-echo sequence, and the arterial phase images were timed using automated contrast-bolus detection software (SmartPrep; General Electric Medical Systems).

MR Image Analysis
Index lesions were identified by correlating the findings from CT or sonography used for biopsy guidance with those from MR imaging. Two experienced radiologists who were unaware of the patient's history, the clinical MR interpretation, and the biopsy results independently determined the signal intensity of all biopsy-proven index lesions on T2-weighted contrast-enhanced arterial, venous, and delayed phase images. The signal intensity was graded using a scale composed of categories; the index lesion was graded as hypointense, isointense, or hyperintense to the liver on each of the imaging sequences performed. Disagreement between observers (1.8%) was resolved by consensus review. In addition, the size of the index lesion and the total number of suspicious lesions visualized were recorded. Lesions varied in size from 0.5 to 16.7 cm (mean, 4.4 cm). The mean number of lesions was 2.6. All images were reviewed on a commercially available workstation (Advantage Windows Workstation; General Electric Medical Systems).

Statistical Analysis
Potential predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in the setting of cirrhosis that we considered included variables identified by other researchers [17, 18, 19, 20] and other variables thought to be clinically relevant. The variables studied for association with hepatic malignancy in the setting of cirrhosis included the following: patient age at the time of the MR imaging examination, patient sex, {alpha}-fetoprotein level before the MR imaging examination, presence or absence of hepatitis C viral genotype, size of the index lesion, number of suspicious lesions, and signal intensity of the index lesion on each of the imaging sequences described earlier.

Because of high skewedness, the data for {alpha}-fetoprotein level were log-transformed (base 10) for our analysis. The number of lesions was also skewed to the right because a few patients had a large number of lesions. Thus, to minimize the effect of the data from a few patients with a large number of lesions unduly influencing our prediction model, we considered each patient who had more than five liver lesions (n = 12 patients) to have six lesions. The average {alpha}-fetoprotein level before the MR imaging examination was 379 ng/mL (range, 1.9–13,746 ng/mL). Hepatitis C viral genotype was detected in 45 (78%) of 58 patients.

Each variable that was a potential predictor for hepatic malignancy was screened first for its relationship to hepatic malignancy status. The relationships between malignancy status and each predictor variable were evaluated. The chi-square test was used when the predictors were categoric variables, such as lesion imaging characteristics, and the two-group t test was used when the predictors were continuous variables, such as age. A logistic regression model was constructed to predict a malignant lesion in which the potential predictors included the value of the sequence-specific MR imaging characteristics and the value of each of the clinical and demographic factors that had been found to be significantly associated with malignancy status from the initial screening of the potential predictors. The final logistic regression model included variables found to be significantly associated with malignant lesions as well as variables that were believed to be clinically relevant predictors. The adjusted odds ratio and its confidence interval were obtained from the final model as a measure of the association between the predictor and malignancy status. The discriminatory performance of the model was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The area under the ROC curve was calculated for the final model. Subsequently, the probability of malignancy was estimated using the final logistic regression model on the basis of combinations of imaging, clinical, and demographic data [21].

We did not validate the final model using a method such as the split sample method, for which the data set would be divided into a model development data set and a validation data set, because our sample was not large enough. Instead, we used the bootstrap method to obtain more reliable estimates of the standard errors of our estimated odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals [22, 23]; for this test, we drew 500 bootstrap samples of 50 lesions each with replacement. Bootstrapping is the method by which we draw a repeated number of random samples with replacement from our observed sample to obtain a more reliable estimate of the standard error of the estimated odds ratio of the predictor variable. The precision of an estimated odds ratio is dependent on the sampling distribution of the odds ratio obtained from the sample drawn from the underlying population (in our analysis, suspicious liver masses in patients with cirrhosis). Multiple random samples of the underlying population yield a more precise estimate of the distribution of the odds ratio than a single sample. Because we had only a single sample of 61 liver lesions, we could simulate the creation of multiple random samples using our single sample as a proxy for the population. Multiple samples of 50 lesions each were randomly drawn with replacement from our observed sample of 61 liver lesions, and the odds ratio was calculated and tallied for each bootstrap sample, which in turn provided an estimate of the standard errors of the estimated odds ratio more reliable than would be provided if the bootstrap method had not been applied to the data set.

All statistical analyses were performed using software (Stata version 6.0; Stata, College Park, TX), and statistical significance was set at a p value of 0.05.

Classification of Malignancy
At our institution, high-grade dysplastic nodules and frank hepatocellular carcinomas are similarly aggressively managed. Therefore, we considered dysplastic nodules to be malignant lesions, and these nodules were grouped with hepatocellular carcinomas and metastases a priori. Of the 61 lesions, 39 (64%) were malignant (37 hepatocellular carcinomas and two metastatic adenocarcinomas), three were high-grade dysplastic nodules (small cell dysplasia), and 19 represented nonmalignant lesions (regenerative nodules).


Results
Top
Abstract
Introduction
Materials and Methods
Results
Discussion
References
 
Variable Screening Analysis
The {alpha}-fetoprotein level, presence or absence of the hepatitis C viral genotype, the size of the lesion, the number of lesions, patient age and sex, and sequence-specific imaging characteristics were considered as potential predictors of hepatic malignancy. Initially, the sequence-specific imaging characteristics were considered categoric variables; for each sequence, two dichotomous variables were created for lesion hyperintensity and for hypointensity relative to the liver. Thus, the reference group for each sequence was the isointense (to liver) category. After an exploratory analysis of the bivariate relationship between malignancy status and each of the sequence-specific imaging characteristic variables, the imaging characteristics were regrouped as follows. We collapsed hypointensity and isointensity during the arterial phase into a single category representing no arterial enhancement; hyperintensity represented arterial enhancement. We similarly collapsed hyperintensity and isointensity on venous phase images into a single category, representing no venous washout; hypointensity indicated venous washout. For T2-weighted imaging, hypointensity and isointensity were also collapsed into a single category.

The variable screening analysis revealed only venous washout to be statistically significant (p = 0.01). The number of lesions was marginally significant (p = 0.10). Arterial enhancement (p = 0.13), T2 hyperintensity (p = 0.65), {alpha}-fetoprotein level (p = 0.19), hepatitis C viral genotype (p = 0.61), patient age (p = 0.21), patient sex (p = 0.27), and lesion size (p = 0.95) were not significant.

Final Predictive Model
To preserve parsimony of the regression model, we included only the variables that were initially significant (p < 0.05) or marginally significant (p < 0.10) and specific imaging characteristics of the index lesion that were used for clinical decision-making, such as {alpha}-fetoprotein level, arterial enhancement, and lesion size [17]. The final logistic regression model for malignant lesions in the setting of cirrhosis included dummy variables for arterial enhancement, venous washout, {alpha}-fetoprotein level, the size of the index lesion, and the number of lesions.

The final model had an area under the ROC curve of 0.82 (Fig. 1), indicating very good discrimination. The model attained a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 53%. In the final model, venous washout, the number of lesions, and the {alpha}-fetoprotein level were significant predictors (p < 0.04). The adjusted odds ratio for {alpha}-fetoprotein level (in log base 10) was 3.24 (Table 1)—that is, for every 10-fold increase in {alpha}-fetoprotein level, the odds of malignancy more than triples. The odds ratio for venous washout was 9.24, which indicates that the presence of venous washout increases the risk of malignancy almost 10-fold. The odds ratio for the number of lesions was 1.54—that is, each additional lesion increases the risk of malignancy 1.54 times.



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Fig. 1. Graph of receiver operating characteristic curve shows performance of regression model for detecting hepatic malignancy in patients with cirrhosis. Regression model used arterial enhancement, venous or delayed phase washout, lesion size, number of lesions, and {alpha}-fetoprotein level as predictors and considered dysplastic nodules as malignancy. Area under curve is 0.82, suggesting very good discriminant ability of predictive model in correctly categorizing malignant lesions. Diagonal line represents test of no discriminative ability or test that is not better than chance.

 

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TABLE 1 Final Logistic Regression Model Showing the Association Between the Independent Predictor Variables and the Probability of Malignancy

 

The model predicts that for patients with an index lesion that is 4.4 cm and three lesions (average number of lesions per patient in this sample) having both arterial enhancement and venous or delayed phase washout (Fig. 2A, 2B) increases the probability of malignancy to at least 65% regardless of the {alpha}-fetoprotein level (Fig. 3). Furthermore, an {alpha}-fetoprotein value of more than 20 ng/mL increases the probability of malignancy to more than 85%. For a patient with the same characteristics but with imaging findings that do not show arterial enhancement and venous washout, the probability of malignancy decreases to less than 35% as long as the {alpha}-fetoprotein value remains less than 160 ng/mL. Furthermore, if the {alpha}-fetoprotein level is within the normal range (<20 ng/mL), the probability of malignancy is less than 20%.



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Fig. 2A. Transverse T1-weighted three-dimensional spoiled gradient-echo MR images of 53-year-old man with cirrhosis and hepatitis B. Biopsy of suspicious liver mass revealed hepatocellular carcinoma. Contrast-enhanced arterial phase image obtained through left portal vein (arrowhead) reveals arterially enhancing mass (arrow) in anterior segment of right lobe of liver.

 


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Fig. 2B. Transverse T1-weighted three-dimensional spoiled gradient-echo MR images of 53-year-old man with cirrhosis and hepatitis B. Biopsy of suspicious liver mass revealed hepatocellular carcinoma. Portal venous phase image obtained at same level as A shows venous washout of contrast material within mass (arrow). Arrowhead = left portal vein.

 


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Fig. 3. Graph shows estimated probability of hepatic malignancy using presence or absence of arterial phase enhancement and of venous phase washout and serum {alpha}-fetoprotein level. With baseline patient age of 55 years, index lesion size of 4.4 cm, and three lesions, probability of malignancy exceeds 60% regardless of {alpha}-fetoprotein level if arterial phase enhancement and either venous or delayed phase washout are present ({square}); it rises to more than 80% if {alpha}-fetoprotein value is greater than 10 ng/mL. In patients with a normal {alpha}-fetoprotein level (<20 ng/mL), probability of malignancy is less than 10% if both arterial phase enhancement and venous phase washout are absent ({diamond}). In average patient with either arterial enhancement and no venous washout ({Delta}) or no arterial enhancement and venous washout ({circ}), but not both, contribution of {alpha}-fetoprotein level to estimation of malignancy is increased.

 

The two enhancement patterns described represent the extreme cases, for which the contribution of {alpha}-fetoprotein level to the estimation of malignancy is small. In the average patient with imaging findings showing either arterial enhancement (Fig. 4A, 4B) or venous washout—but not both—the contribution of the {alpha}-fetoprotein level to the estimation of malignancy is substantial (Fig. 3).



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Fig. 4A. Transverse T1-weighted three-dimensional spoiled gradient-echo MR images of 64-year-old man with cirrhosis and hepatitis C. Biopsy of suspicious liver lesion revealed cirrhosis without evidence of malignancy. Contrast-enhanced arterial phase image shows faintly enhancing mass (arrow) in dome of liver.

 


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Fig. 4B. Transverse T1-weighted three-dimensional spoiled gradient-echo MR images of 64-year-old man with cirrhosis and hepatitis C. Biopsy of suspicious liver lesion revealed cirrhosis without evidence of malignancy. Portal venous phase image obtained at same level as A reveals persistent enhancement of mass (arrow) compared with rest of liver.

 

The effect of lesion multiplicity with both arterial enhancement and venous washout shows that as the number of liver lesions increases, the probability of malignancy increases as well (Fig. 5). The effect of the number of lesions is particularly pronounced at normal {alpha}-fetoprotein levels (defined as < 20 ng/mL). A solitary lesion with arterial enhancement and venous washout has a probability of malignancy of between 35% and 98%, depending on the {alpha}-fetoprotein level. If five or more lesions are present, the probability of malignancy rises to a minimum of approximately 80% regardless of the {alpha}-fetoprotein level.



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Fig. 5. Graph shows independent effects of number of lesions (one lesion, •; three lesions, {blacksquare}; five lesions, {blacktriangleup}) on probability of hepatic malignancy. In presence of arterial phase enhancement and venous phase washout, number of lesions present has marked effect on probability of malignancy; however, as {alpha}-fetoprotein level rises above 20 ng/mL, probability of malignancy exceeds 70% regardless how many lesions are present.

 

The latter clinical scenario of a large number of lesions in the presence of a normal {alpha}-fetoprotein value was reflected in our clinical population. Of the 12 patients with five or more lesions, eight had a normal {alpha}-fetoprotein level (<20 ng/mL). Of these eight individuals, six (75%) had malignant lesions. Of the remaining four patients without a normal {alpha}-fetoprotein level, all four (100%) had malignant lesions.

Of the possible predictors of malignancy studied, only venous washout remains significant at the 95% confidence level—that is, the 95% confidence intervals around the estimates of the odds ratios did not include 1 after 500 bootstrap samples were drawn.


Discussion
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Abstract
Introduction
Materials and Methods
Results
Discussion
References
 
Hepatocellular carcinoma, a common cancer occurring at a rate of 1–4% a year after diagnosis of cirrhosis [24], continues to pose challenges in detection and characterization. Advances in surgical resection and tumor ablation and more effective triaging of individuals for transplantation on the basis of the presence of small hepatocellular carcinoma drive the need for the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma. However, the inherent distortion of the hepatic parenchyma resulting from cirrhosis can obscure or mimic hepatocellular carcinoma. Furthermore, a continuum of increasing malignant potential exists from regenerating nodules to dysplastic nodules to frank hepatocellular carcinoma [25, 26, 27].

Underlying hepatic nodules in the cirrhotic liver and the extensive overlap of the imaging characteristics for benign and malignant nodules limit the sensitivity and specificity of many imaging modalities [3, 4, 10, 11, 12]. A retrospective review of 269 patients with cirrhosis who underwent liver transplantation was undertaken to determine the best screening algorithm for detecting occult hepatocellular carcinoma in the cirrhotic liver [28]. In this population, the evaluation before transplantation consisted of focused hepatic sonography, gadolinium-enhanced MR imaging, and serum {alpha}-fetoprotein testing. Results indicated that MR imaging was more sensitive than sonography (68% vs 43%, respectively) for detecting hepatocellular carcinoma, although both were extremely specific (99%). A greater percentage of patients with malignant lesions had an elevated {alpha}-fetoprotein level (>=20 ng/mL) compared with those without a malignant lesion. Although Gogel et al. [28] concluded from these data that screening in patients with cirrhosis should include serum {alpha}-fetoprotein monitoring and gadolinium-enhanced MR imaging at regular intervals, these researchers found that neither test proved sufficiently sensitive independently.

Another group of researchers verified the limited sensitivity and specificity of MR imaging in detecting small hepatocellular carcinomas and small dysplastic nodules before transplantation [29]. This study and another [28] independently considered imaging characteristics as predictors for malignancy without incorporating the clinical and demographic characteristics of the patients. Our analysis reveals that controlling for the presence of cirrhosis, patient age and sex, and hepatitis C viral genotype does not add significant predictive power for determining lesion malignancy. However, the final predictive model using {alpha}-fetoprotein level testing and a variety of imaging characteristics of the index lesion have a greater sensitivity (88%) than was previously reported for MR imaging, but at lesser specificity (53%).

Ecologic studies examining the likelihood of malignancy in hepatic masses detected on MR imaging revealed that if a patient does not have a history of malignancy or underlying hepatic disease, the identified hepatic mass is unlikely to be malignant [15, 16]. Tello et al. [16] combined patient history and demographic information with T2 relaxivity to develop a prediction rule for characterizing hepatic lesions detected on MR imaging. In this population of patients with and without a history of underlying nonhepatic malignancy, a prediction rule using T2 relaxivity, history of malignancy, and gadolinium enhancement pattern (hemangiomalike or not) attained an area under the ROC curve of 0.95. However, Tello et al. incorporated only T2 relaxivity, an uncommon measurement of T2 signal, and a limited manifestation of enhancement patterns in their regression model. Moreover, the range of lesions included a large number of hemangiomas and cysts that, in general, are less challenging to diagnose. Other groups of researchers reported that the specificity of MR imaging for differentiating cysts and hemangiomas from hepatocellular carcinomas and metastases is 100% [9, 30].

Individuals with cirrhosis are inherently different from the populations in the studies we have discussed. Selecting patients with cirrhosis increased the likelihood of hepatocellular carcinoma in our study population and also limited the prognostic contribution of clinical history to lesion characterization. The use of MR imaging characteristics that can be obtained from a nonstandard examination limits the generalizability of the previously developed prediction model across different clinical practices. Therefore, we sought to develop a prediction model based on a routine MR imaging examination of the liver combined with available clinical and demographic data. We excluded hepatic cysts and cavernous hemangiomas because these lesions are usually detected and characterized with sufficient confidence to avoid needle biopsy.

Our analysis focused on differentiating benign solid masses from malignant solid masses in the cirrhotic liver. The incorporation of imaging characteristics, such as arterial enhancement and venous washout, and {alpha}-fetoprotein level, patient age, lesion size, and number of lesions yielded a prediction model with an area under the ROC curve of 0.82, indicating very good discriminatory ability. In addition, interesting trends emerged from the data that are not captured by sensitivity and specificity alone and that may increase the usefulness of our analysis.

The combination of arterial phase enhancement and venous phase washout was extremely predictive of malignancy, even at normal serum {alpha}-fetoprotein levels. The combination of a lack of arterial phase enhancement and a lack of venous phase washout markedly reduced the probability of malignancy regardless of the serum {alpha}-fetoprotein level. On the other hand, we found that in the presence of either arterial phase enhancement or venous phase washout—but not both—the {alpha}-fetoprotein level greatly affects the probability of malignancy. In addition, our results indicate that increasing the number of lesions increases the probability of malignancy independent of enhancement characteristics and can double the probability of malignancy at low to normal levels of {alpha}-fetoprotein. We found that lesion size was not predictive of malignancy, after controlling for dynamic enhancement characteristics and {alpha}-fetoprotein level.

Current screening recommendations for individuals with cirrhosis include serial sonography and {alpha}-fetoprotein level testing every 6 months, with additional cross-sectional imaging on CT or MR imaging when a suspicious nodule is detected or the {alpha}-fetoprotein level increases [17]. Bruix et al. [17] have suggested the following imaging diagnostic criteria for hepatocellular carcinoma, without requiring additional biopsy: either images obtained from two coincident techniques showing a focal lesion larger than 2 cm with arterial hypervascularization or images obtained from one technique showing a focal lesion larger than 2 cm with arterial hypervascularization and an {alpha}-fetoprotein level of greater than 400 ng/mL. However, our study suggests that the most robust imaging characteristic that suggests hepatocellular carcinoma is present in patients with cirrhosis is venous washout, although arterial enhancement was a borderline significant predictor of malignancy during the model development. Additionally, with the appropriate pattern of enhancement, a single imaging test appears to enable one to predict whether a malignancy is present, even in patients with a normal or only mildly elevated {alpha}-fetoprotein value.

We chose to focus on the imaging sequences that comprise a typical liver MR imaging protocol performed routinely in general clinical practice to increase the usefulness of the prediction model developed. Although the prediction model in its present iteration may not be sufficiently sensitive to detect all malignant lesions, this model may aid in estimating the probability of malignancy and may provide guidance in clinical decision-making. In particular, the model may suggest which lesions should be aggressively pursued or expectantly managed, particularly if the visualized nodule is not easily accessible for percutaneous biopsy. In addition, because MR imaging in patients with cirrhosis often reveals multiple lesions, the model can potentially facilitate the explicit assignment of probability estimates of malignancy in MR imaging reports and could potentially be used to direct subsequent biopsy toward the lesion with findings most suspicious for malignancy. The potential predictive capability of the model may be useful, particularly in individuals with chronic viral hepatitis who may present with a transient elevation of the {alpha}-fetoprotein value during inflammatory disease flares and also with persistent elevations without hepatocellular carcinoma [17]. In these patients, the potential specificity of venous washout for malignancy may prevent unnecessary biopsies from being performed.

An acknowledged limitation of our study rests on the method used for lesion verification. Although the diagnoses of all lesions considered were proven by needle biopsy findings, considering dysplastic nodules as benign or malignant is problematic. Frank hepatocellular carcinoma often coexists within predominantly dysplastic nodules; however, these carcinomatous foci may be missed as a result of sampling error. Nonetheless, at our institution, the preferred clinical approach to high-grade dysplastic nodules is aggressive management, often radiofrequency ablation. Therefore, we considered dysplastic nodules as malignant lesions.

The prevalence of disease in our retrospective study exceeded 58%, whereas prospective studies with explant correlation had a disease prevalence of 8–15% [28, 29, 31]. Clearly, the elevated prevalence of malignancy reflects a clinical management bias in selecting patients for percutaneous biopsy. Patients with lesions that had equivocal findings may have been clinically followed up with serum {alpha}-fetoprotein testing and repeated imaging rather than immediate biopsy. However, the inclusion of lesions with verification on follow-up imaging would have increased the number of benign solid masses, potentially limiting the assignment of the correct pathologic diagnosis, particularly given the spectrum of malignant potential in these masses. The rate of malignant transformation can be rapid [27] and independent of concomitant alterations in imaging characteristics. Although MR imaging does not detect most hepatocellular carcinomas in a cirrhotic liver before transplantation [28, 29], whether this diminished detection leads to worse outcomes is uncertain because these tumors are usually small. Variability in contrast administration may also have limited the detection of hepatocellular carcinoma during dynamic contrast imaging.

The number of patients available for inclusion in the generation of the final predictive model precluded direct validation of the model. However, we have simulated validation by applying bootstrap methodology. Using this method, we found that venous phase washout is the most robust predictor of hepatic malignancy. The ultimate predictive ability of the model remains to be independently validated.


Acknowledgments
 
In conclusion, the dynamic enhancement characteristics of hepatic lesions in conjunction with serum {alpha}-fetoprotein level and lesion multiplicity can facilitate explicit estimation of the probability of malignancy in individuals with underlying cirrhosis. If arterial enhancement and venous washout are either both present or both absent, prediction of malignancy can rely predominantly on the enhancement characteristics. If only one of these characteristics is present, the {alpha}-fetoprotein level has a greater contribution toward estimating the probability of hepatic malignancy. Such estimation can potentially aid clinical management.


References
Top
Abstract
Introduction
Materials and Methods
Results
Discussion
References
 

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