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Fig. 2 —Schematic representation of simulated population without CT
colonography screening intervention. Expected number of advanced adenomas and
colorectal cancer (CRC) cases were derived using assumptions described in
text. Note that 24% of CRC is considered to be unpreventable by polyp
screening based on findings from National Polyp Study
[20]. Given relative paucity
of firm natural history data for colorectal polyps, 10-year CRC risk for
subcentimeter advanced lesions was conservatively assumed to be the same as
that for large advanced lesions, which likely overestimates importance of
small polyps.
