May 2019, VOLUME 212
NUMBER 5

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May 2019, Volume 212, Number 5

Women's Imaging

Opinion

Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Women's Imaging: Cost-Benefit Analysis

+ Affiliation:
1Department of Diagnostic Radiology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Blvd, Unit 1350, Houston, TX 77030-4009.

Citation: American Journal of Roentgenology. 2019;212: 1172-1173. 10.2214/AJR.18.20419

ABSTRACT
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OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this article is to identify and discuss four areas in which artificial intelligence (AI) must excel to become clinically viable: performance, time, work flow, and cost.

CONCLUSION. AI holds tremendous potential for transforming the practice of radiology, but certain metrics are needed to objectively quantify its impact. As patients, physicians, hospitals, and insurance companies look for value, AI must earn a role in medical imaging.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, breast cancer screening, computer-aided detection, cost-benefit, women's imaging

The technology of artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to drive the next wave of progress in medical image interpretation. Within the realm of AI, deep learning refers to a powerful subset of machine learning techniques that develop algorithms that enable a computer program to learn from observation. After reviewing a large amount of training data, the algorithm can make a prediction when given an unknown case. This strategy of computer-aided detection (CAD) is novel compared with previous techniques, whereby software developers wrote code that instructed computers to search for certain edge or pixel findings within an image.

Most of our currently existing data regarding CAD in medical image interpretation involve mammography. Therefore, the field of breast imaging is an advanced starting point to predict the future impact of AI on radiology. In the United States, CAD is used for most screening examinations. Although early studies showed modest improvements in diagnostic performance with the use of traditional CAD, more recent studies have shown that use of traditional CAD may not improve the diagnostic ability of radiologists [1]. Hence, the current impact of CAD on mammographic interpretation may be summarized as controversial, and any method to improve the performance of mammography could markedly affect patient care. The adoption of any new technology must achieve certain metrics to become viable. In this article, we identify and discuss four conditions necessary to implement a valuable product: increased performance, time efficiency, streamlined work flow, and decreased cost (Fig. 1).

figure
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Fig. 1 —Chart shows conditions necessary for artificial intelligence.

Performance
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The most important condition that AI must satisfy is to improve the performance of mammography. Without this achievement, there is no utility in the technology for interpretation purposes. The sensitivity of currently available CAD is acceptable. The major drawback, however, is the high rate of false-positive marks, also known as flags. False-positive flags can distract the interpreting radiologist with too much noise and lead to unnecessary workups and biopsies. Increases in recall rates and false-positive examination results of screening may be partially attributed to the false-positive flags of current CAD technology. One report in the literature [2] describes significantly decreased specificity of radiologists with CAD, along with an overall increase in false-positive recalls. If AI earns a place in breast imaging, its best opportunity is to decrease false-positive flags compared with the number associated with currently available CAD programs. There are limited research data, but so far AI programs analyzing mammograms have exhibited performance equal to that of radiologists in assigning breast density [3]. In the recent Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments (DREAM) challenge that ended in May 2017, a competition of AI algorithms to detect breast cancer in a test set of mammograms, the winning algorithm achieved an ROC AUC of 0.87 in the final test, which indicates good generalization ability.

Time
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A second desirable feature for making AI successful within diagnostic radiology is that it must not unnecessarily increase interpretation time. Ideally, AI CAD would take no more time for the radiologist to evaluate than currently available CAD, which is estimated to increase interpretation time approximately 20%. If AI CAD contains fewer flags to review, interpretation time will also be decreased. The previously described concept of a quick negative examination may become a reality if the negative predictive value of AI CAD can approach 100% [4]. A quick negative examination is one which an AI algorithm identifies a negative finding with 100% certainty, generates an appropriate report, and closes the case without a radiologist's ever looking at the examination. If even a small percentage of cases can be identified as negative with 100% certainty, a substantial amount of valuable physician time can be directed at more complicated cases and other activities requiring human intervention.

In general, for successful clinical implementation of AI CAD, the AI CAD algorithm must not delay the delivery of images to radiologists. This is particularly relevant, for example, for radiology studies performed in the emergency department, where quick and timely intervention is often paramount. In contrast, the speed of imaging analysis of AI algorithms will likely not be a rate-determining issue in breast imaging because most screening examinations are interpreted off-line and not in real time, facilitating the successful clinical implementation of AI CAD in breast cancer screening.

Work Flow
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A third feature that must be present is seamless work flow integration. The AI effort should start before image acquisition by combing the medical record to identify patients in need of appropriate imaging. The ordering process and scheduling may then be initiated automatically on behalf of the referring physician. The radiologist's review of the AI image analysis should be completely integrated into the postacquisition process. There should not be separate workstations or monitors. An ideal format would be similar to current CAD, in which AI information can be toggled on and off in an image overlay manner. There will likely be many more vendors of AI software than hardware given their lower barriers to market entry. This means that AI algorithms must be compatible and fully integrated with multiple manufacturers' hardware and software systems and be functional across varying platforms.

A potential application of AI to improve both work flow and patient care is the concept of rereading, whereby the algorithm begins to review archived recent prior examinations not subjected to initial AI CAD evaluation. Any cases flagged would be automatically moved into a queue to be reviewed by a radiologist [4]. If even one cancer per thousand cases were to be detected, this process would positively affect the cost-benefit ratio.

Cost
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The cost to provide AI interpretive assistance must not be so high that it tilts the value equation against its use. Currently, CAD is included as part of a bundled charge for both screening and diagnostic mammograms rather than an individual separate charge. Introducing a new code for billing is unlikely. Increasing speed and availability of high-performance computers along with newly minted ranks of computer scientists should lower barriers to entry into AI development. Over time, this should lower prices. In addition, with the open access initiatives of groups such as the IBM DREAM challenge, the top-performing software will be released to everyone free of charge and open to upgrades from anyone. This would obviate expensive licensing fees and purchase agreements. Given that false-positive mammograms are estimated to cost the health care system approximately $4 billion each year, a decrease in false-positive CAD flags has strong potential to lower the overall cost of breast imaging [5].

Conclusion
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If developers can achieve the conditions we outline, AI will have an attractive cost-benefit ratio in women's imaging. The most likely starting point for AI in women's imaging will be mammography. The intent of this article is to frame radiology's approach to the benefit side of the cost-benefit ratio. We anticipate a flood of data on the impact of AI in the realm of image interpretation in the near future. Specifically, data related to sensitivity, positive predictive value, turnaround time, and prices are needed to conduct a valid cost-benefit analysis. Without many validated commercially available products and reimbursement figures, the process for calculating the cost side of the ratio will have to occur over time after data are collected from clinical practice and rigorously evaluated. As those data become available, we anticipate the emergence of a number of models to quantify the cost-benefit ratio of AI. The framework for such a model may be similar to that developed by Lee et al. [6] for investigating the cost-effectiveness of tomosyn-thesis for screening dense breast tissue. Our intent is that this article sets in motion the process of collectively crowd-sourcing both ideas for the use of AI in general and specific projects for collecting the data needed.

Acknowledgment
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We thank Kelly Kage of The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center for contributing to figure preparation.

References
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1. Lehman CD, Wellman RD, Buist DS, Kerlikowske K, Tostenson AN, Miglioretti DL. Diagnostic accuracy of digital screening mammography with and without computer-aided detection. JAMA Intern Med 2015; 175:1828–1837 [Google Scholar]
2. Fenton JJ, Taplin SH, Carney PA, et al. Influence of computer-aided detection on performance of screening mammography. N Engl J Med 2007; 356:1399–1409 [Google Scholar]
3. Kerlikowske K, Scott CG, Mahmoudzadeh AP, et al. Automated and clinical breast imaging reporting and data system density measures predict risk for screen-detected and interval cancers: a case-control study. Ann Intern Med 2018; 168:757–765 [Google Scholar]
4. Mayo RC, Leung J. Artificial intelligence and deep learning: radiology's next frontier? Clin Imaging 2018; 49:87–88 [Google Scholar]
5. Ong MS, Mandl KD. National expenditure for false-positive mammograms and breast cancer overdiagnoses estimated at $4 billion a year. Health Aff (Millwood) 2015; 34:576–583 [Google Scholar]
6. Lee CI, Cevik M, Alagoz O. Comparative effectiveness of combined digital mammography and tomosynthesis screening for women with dense breasts. Radiology 2015; 274:772–780 [Google Scholar]
Address correspondence to R. C. Mayo ().

J. W. T. Leung is a member of the speakers bureau of Fujifilm, Inc.

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